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JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT VOLUME 7 NO 2, DECEMBER, 2009

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND SOCIAL SECTOR TRANSFORMATION: ACHIEVING MDGs IN NIGERIA

Matthew I. Eboreime
Department of Economics, Western Delta University, Oghara, Delta State
E-mail: mattheweboreime@yahoo.com
and
Everlyn Iyoko
Department of Economics, Novena University, Ogume, Delta State
 E-mail: iyokoevelyn@yahoo.com

 Abstract
The global economic depression is negatively affecting the economies of the less developed countries of the world, especially through the fall in the international prices of primary export commodities. Although Nigeria is not fully integrated into the world economy, yet the impact of the global economic crisis is reverberating through the entire nation with the possibility of reversing any progress so far recorded in the social sector. This paper analyses the trend in social sector components in Nigeria and these components include education, health, and sanitation, among others. The social sector indices point to the fact that socio-economic conditions have in general plummeted. Furthermore, the paper assessed the possibility of achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in a dualistic environment following the failure in positively transforming the social sector of the Nigerian economy. It is our conclusion that baring any favourable stochastic development, it would be improbable for Nigeria to achieve the millennium development goals by 2015. However, suggestions were made on possible policy options that would move the nation closer to these goals and it would include reflationary prorammes, sound fiscal discipline, sustained economic reforms and eradication of widespread corruption to enhance fiscal interventions in the social sector of the economy.
Keywords: Crisis; transformation; millennium development goals


Introduction
The current global economic crisis originated in the United States, from where it spread to other parts of the world. The intensification of the global crisis has made the economic and financial environment a very difficult one for the world economy, the global financial system and for central banks.
Many unanswered questions have now been raised: to what extent has the crisis affected development in the Nigerian economy? Why does the crisis seem to persist despite the numerous policy measures adopted in United States and other countries to restore confidence in the market? When will this end? How prepared is the Nigerian economy to handle this? (Amaefule, 2008)

Given this scenario, this paper focuses on social sector transformation in Nigeria, and especially, the possibility of achieving the Millennium Development Goals within the framework of a depressed global economy.          

Concept of the social sector

The social sector of a country may be broadly defined as the segment of the economy that is devoted to enhancing the qualitative aspect of man. In Nigeria, the notion of the social sector has changed over time. In the First National Development Plan (1962 – 68), the social sector expenditure was included under the caption of social overhead, and this includes activities related to education, health, town and country planning, cooperative and social welfare and information. In the Second National Development Plan (1970 – 74), the boundary of the social sector was extended to include water and sewage. But in the Third National Development Plan (1975-1980), a re-classification is noticeable with social services now comprising education, health, information, labour as well as social development, youth and sports.  The above categorization was retained in Fourth National Development Plan (1981 – 85).  Additionally, in the reviewed Fourth Plan, the social sector components were made up of five sub-groups: education, health, information,

labour and social development. Other socially relevant services such as water supply, sewerage, and housing, town/country planning and environmental protection were grouped under environmental development (Ayo, 1988). In this paper, the perception of the social sector includes issues and activities relating to education, health, nutrition, sanitation, water and social welfare.

Social sector and structural transformation
Social sector transformation is no doubt one of the necessary conditions for the structural transformation of the economies of less developed countries.  The dualistic-development thesis applies squarely to these under-developed economies. As Todaro and Smith (2009) observe, elements of dualism include the notion of the coexistence of modern and traditional methods of production in urban and rural sectors; the coexistence of wealthy, highly educated elites with masses of illiterate poor people and so on. Dualistic structures tend to be chronic and not merely transitional – the degrees of superiority or inferiority fail to show any sign of diminishing, instead they have an inherent tendency to increase.

The Lewis two-sector model of structural transformation posits that an under-developed economy consists of two sector, a traditional rural subsistence sector with zero marginal productivity of labour and a high productivity urban industrial sector into which surplus labour from the subsistence sector is gradually transferred (Todaro and Smith, 2009; and Hogendorn, 1987). It is easy to visualize that an enhancement in human capital (education, training and health) will facilitate the transformation of dualistic economies.

Furthermore, the pattern of development analysis of structural change focuses on the sequential process through which the economic, industrial and institutional structure of an underdeveloped economy is transformed over time to allow new industries to replace traditional agriculture as the engine of growth. The best-known model of

structural change is that of Harvard economist Hollis B. Chenery and his colleagues (Todaro and Smith, 2009). Structural change models emphasize the accumulation of capital, both physical and human as well as other numerous economic functions. Here again, the social sector is brought into focus.

Additionally, studies linking education (a social sector component) to economic growth and transformation is legion. For instance, some economists (see Romer 1987, Azariads and Drazen 1990 and Mankiw et al 1996 in Aremo and Folorunso, 2008) assert that what increases productivity is not an exogenous factor, but an endogenous one that is assumed to have functional relationship with the knowledge and behaviour of the people responsible for the accumulation of physical capital. By implication, human capital in health and education becomes endogenous factors in the growth process. Thus, government expenditure in health/heath-related activities and education could affect economic growth and the transformation of the economy.

A review of social sector issues in Nigeria
One way of assessing the extent of social sector transformation is to review the level of resources committed to the sector in relation to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Specifically, we computed the ratio of educational and health expenditures to GDP from 1981 to 2008 based on GDP and social expenditure data in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin (CBN 2006 and 2008). Public expenditures on educational and health make up about 70 to 80 percent of total expenditure in the social sector. The ratios are presented in Table 1 and Figure 1.

The basic argument is that all things being equal, appropriate or increasing levels of public expenditure on education and health would translate to greater availability of requisite manpower including doctors, nurses and teachers; higher literacy level; reduced infant and maternal mortality as well as improvements in other social desiderata.


Table 1: Education and health expenditures as a ratio of gross domestic product

 

 Year

           Education expenditure as

          Health expenditure as

 

 

 

 

                     a % of GDP

                 A % of GDP

 

 

 

1981

                      0.0096

                 0.0024

 

 

 

1982

                       0.0103

                 0.0026

 

 

 

1983

                       0.0081

                 0.0023

 

 

 

1984

                       0.0069

                 0.0015

 

 

 

1985

                       0.0059

                 0.0015

 

 

 

1986

                       0.0076

                 0.0025

 

 

 

1987

                       0.0032

                 0.0012

 

 

 

1988

                       0.0039

                 0.0016

 

 

 

1989

                       0.0048

                 0.0011

 

 

 

1990

                       0.0046

                 0.0013

 

 

 

1991

                       0.0027

                 0.0013

 

 

 

1992

                       0.0024

                 0.0011

 

 

 

1993

                       0.0071

                 0.0024

 

 

 

1994

                       0.007

                 0.0021

 

 

 

1995

                       0.0043

                 0.0017

 

 

 

1996

                       0.0037

                 0.0012

 

 

 

1997

                       0.0037

                 0.0013

 

 

 

1998

                       0.0065

                 0.0029

 

 

 

1999

                       0.0066

                 0.0034

 

 

 

2000

                       0.0099

                 0.0029

 

 

 

2001

                       0.0085

                 0.0063

 

 

 

2002

                       0.014

                 0.0079

 

 

 

2003

                       0.0078

                 0.0039

 

 

 

2004

                       0.008

                 0.0051

 

 

 

2005

                       0.0082

                 0.0049

 

 

 

2006

                       0.0066

                 0.0052

 

 

 

2007

                       0.0052

                 0.0034

 

 

 

2008

                       0.0069

                 0.0041

 

 

 

 

      Source: Computed by the authors from CBN’s data (see CBN 2006 and 2008)                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1

adada


It is evident from the Figure 1 that the trend of educational expenditure as a ratio of GDP showed significant fluctuation. In general, the nation’s gross domestic product rose throughout the period under review. Thus, the fluctuation is accounted for the varying levels of educational expenditure. The trend in health expenditure shows a similar oscillation, albeit, milder and it is attributable also to the vacillating nature of health expenditure. The above scenario does not depict a country that is passing through any serious process of social transformation as a prelude towards achieving the millennium development goals.

Some available performance indicators are considered below. The National Planning Commission (undated:146) in it’s Draft Second National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy – 2008-2011 averred that the population per physician declined steadily from 3,373 in 2001 to 3,059 in 2005. Alongside, population per nursing staff fell from 1082 in 2001 to 714 in 2005. Additionally, the population per hospital bed increased from 1651 in 2001 to 1806 in 2005. The Commission’s report notes that (p.148) “Maternal mortality rate of 1000 per 100.000 deliveries is one of the highest in the world while infant mortality and under-5 mortality rate of 201 are not suitable health status

for Nigeria. Over 60 percent of infants under-5 and maternal mortality rates are due to underlying malnutrition: 42 percent of under-5 children are stunted, 25 percent are under-weight and 9 percent are wasted. Similarly, micro-nutrient deficiencies are high with vitamin A deficiency being 29.5 percent, iron deficiency 36.5 percent and iodine deficiency 13 percent.”

African Development Bank - ADB (2008) corroborates some of the above facts in its remark to the effect that as at 2003, there were 26 physicians to 100,000 Nigerians with 120 nurses serving the same number. Furthermore, it observed that between 1990 – 94 and 2003, public expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP declined from 1.9% to 1.4%.  ADB also points to the fact that public expenditure on education in Nigeria as a % of GDP declined from 1.4% in 1980-84 to 0.9% in 2003. The National Planning Commission recapitulated the findings of the Education Sector Analysis: 22,273,046 pupils enrolled in schools out of 27,359,998 children of primary school-age population in 2005/2006 – a gross enrollment of 77.9%. The number of un-enrolled children of over five million is considered significant. At the junior secondary level, enrollment is low with a gross enrollment of 36.1% (33.3% for girls) – approximately 7.9 million aged 12-14 years were un-enrolled out of a total population of 10,035,804 in 2005. At the senior secondary school level, only 2,773,418 were able to enroll out of a total population of 9,985,796 in that age category. In all cases the student/teacher ratios were high. Thus, all is not well with the educational system in Nigeria.

Millennium Development Goals
Leaders of 189 member countries of the United Nations (UN) gathered in September 2000 to take a momentous step in the global war against poverty, which led to the birth of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The central reason for the MDGs is to reduce extreme poverty in several of its ramifications. This entails a shift from the traditional focus on income poverty alone (see Okogu, 2009 and Sampson 2007).

At least, the MDGs grew out from the basic need strategy adopted by the world employment conference of 1976 and confirmed by the General Assembly of the United Nations. The

definition by Francis Blanchard, International Labour Office’s former Director-General, posits that, basic needs are “the minimum standard of living which a society should set for the poorest groups of its people. The satisfaction of basic needs means meeting the minimum requirements of a family for personal consumption: food, shelter, clothing; it implies access to essential services, such as safe drinking water, sanitation, transport, health and education; it implies that each person available for and willing to work should have an adequately remunerated job. It should further imply the satisfaction of needs of a more qualitative nature. A healthy, humane and satisfactory environment and popular participation in the making of decisions that affect the lives and livelihood of the people and individual freedoms” (see ILO, Employment, Growth and Basic Needs: A One-World Problem, 1977 in Nwosu 2000).

Thus, the first MDG addresses the twin problems of extreme poverty and hunger with the target to reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day and to reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. As Todaro and Smith (2009) pointed out, “halving poverty” has come to serve as a touchstone for the MDGs as a whole. The goals were to be met not later than 2015 using the global situation as at 1990 as the benchmark for measuring progress over time. The goals and targets are shown in Table 2.

Status of MDGs in Nigeria
The stage of social sector transformation in Nigeria has a strong bearing on the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria. Tables 3, 4 and 5 were employed in analyzing the status of MDGs.The goal of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger is still a long way ahead. Close to 70 million Nigerians – about 50.2% of the population lived in extreme poverty in 2007. It took eleven years for the percentage to drop from 70.2% in 1995 to about 50.2% in 2007 while the Millennium Development target is 21.3%. All things being equal, it would take another fifteen or sixteen years from now to meet the target - a timeframe that is clearly beyond 2015. However, extreme hunger is unlikely as the percentage of the population below the required minimum dietary energy stood at 6.9% in 2006. The target here is 5.2% by 2015.

The second outcome goal of achieving a 100% universal primary education is not quite satisfactory as the net enrolment ratio in primary education, proportion of pupils starting grade I and primary six completion rate have fallen between 2000 and 2007. DFID Annual Report (2007) asserts that less than 60% of primary aged children attend school and in terms of number, 7 million primary aged children are not in school.

The third goal relates to the promotion of gender equality and empowerment of women. From Table 4, the gap between boys and girls in primary and secondary schools is almost bridged. This is good, but the percentage of seats held by women in parliament stood at 7.7% in 2007, a far gap from the targeted 30% in 2015.

In general, goals 4 and 5 have worsened. Child mortality is on the rise, while maternal health has plummeted. The sixth goal of combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases has worsened (see Tables 4 and 5). The DFID report states that 5% of Nigerians are infected with HIV – over 10% in some states. AIDS orphans have reached an alarming figure of one million.

The various indicators for the seventh goal – ensuring environmental sustainability are moving from bad to worse. Less than 50% of Nigerians have access to safe drinking water.

The last millennium development goal (no. 8) shows up good or improving in terms of achievement.

The analysis above is based on data generated during the “boom” period before the onset of the current global economic crisis. The overall or general picture for Nigeria is that of a dismal performance. Even without any global depression, at the 2007 rates, Nigeria would not have been able to meet most of the MDGs by 2015.

Achieving Nigeria’s MDGs in a recessionary global economy

The global economic crisis is raging. Many developed countries have launched a full-scale war against recession with an apparent vow never to experience a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The signs that point to how the world economy torpedoed from boom to

burst include: collapse of mortgage business in the United States; crash in stock markets world-wide, credit crunch for businesses and individuals; contraction in retail sales and profits; bankruptcy of several mortgage lenders; falling aggregate demand; reduced factory output; major job losses around the world, etc (Sampson 2008)
The contagion has caught up with countries like Nigeria which had thought that by not being fully integrated into the world economy, they could at worst receive a mere scratch. The transmission mechanism through which the crisis is impacting on Nigeria can be summarized as provided below.

The fall in crude oil prices as a result of decline in global demand is causing a drastic fall in foreign exchange earnings (oil price is yet to reverse to its pre-crisis level). The direct consequence of this development is a deterioration of current account balances, erosion of foreign reserves and heavy losses in trade tax revenue (see African Development Bank, 2009). The rising exchange rates due to the devaluation of the local currency by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as well as the rising interest rates have compounded the cost of doing business. The running down of foreign reserves has dampened the prospect of infrastructural development. Power supply has dropped to its lowest level in recent years.

Some qualitative indicators include: the naira to the US dollar exchange rate declined from N116.07 in November 2008 to N145.83 in March 2009. Oil price nose-dived from $131.22 per barrel in July 2008 to $46.75 per barrel in 2009. There was a fall in foreign reserves from $64 billion in August 2008 to $47 billion as at March 2009 ( Abubakar, 2009). Additionally, the on-going crisis in the banking sector is aggravating the already precarious trend in the economy. In the period since August, 2009, the CBN has declared ten prominent commercial banks technically insolvent, chronically illiquid, with a revelation that they had largely eroded their shareholders funds and practically breached all regulatory ratios in banking (The Nation October 3, 2009; Guardian, August 18 and 20, 2009). The net result of all this is to depress income, significantly reduce aggregate demand and

factory output, and lead to an escalation of the unemployment problem and poverty.

Consequently, in terms of the MDGs, the global economic meltdown will only serve to exacerbate the poverty situation in Nigeria. Achieving the MDGs will require a significant redistribution from the gains of economic growth. The global economic crisis and the afore-mentioned transmission channels in Nigeria will drastically impact on the domestic economy as summarized below: GDP growth rates – may be wiped out as oil export revenue falls; economic activities declines; industrial production falls; unemployment rises; total aggregate demand falls; and so on. All the above factors will certainly increase the population below poverty line in Nigeria. It has been estimated that in 2009 alone, population below poverty will rise by 50 million in sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusion
The current global economic crisis has serious and far reaching consequences for Nigeria as the decline in global demand for crude oil has virtually affected all sectors of the national economy through huge revenue losses. The unresolved Niger Delta crisis only compounds the problem further and to obviate this, the federal government must be sincere in implementing post-amnesty reconstruction programmes. On the whole, the social sector in Nigeria will be worst hit by negative economic turbulence. With the curtailment in the expansion of social overheads, the MDGs can only be farther from realization.
Given the poor achievement of the MDGs as at 2007 – a period we can refer to as an economic boom period, the MDGs targets may not be achieved by 2015 if the negative economic indices persist. With the continuing global recession and only six years to 2015, it can be concluded that baring any favourable stochastic factors, it would be highly improbable for Nigeria to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

However, Nigeria can at least take pro-active steps that would move the nation significantly closer to the attainment of these goals by putting a robust reflationary package in place; promote

sound fiscal discipline; do away with unnecessary imports to conserve foreign exchange; drastically curb corruption to save resources for greater fiscal intervention (especially in education, health and other social segments); embark on genuine social engineering, reconciliation and social justice to achieve economic patriotism; fine-tune and continue on-going reforms to truly diversify the productive base of the economy and thus, accelerate the pace of socio-economic transformation.

Table 2: The millennium development goals

Goal

Target

Goal 1
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar a day

 

Target 1.B
Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people*

 

Target 1.C
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Goal 2
Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A
Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

Goal 3
Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A
Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

Goal 4
Reduce child mortality

Target 4.A
Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Goal 5
Improve maternal health

Target 5.A
Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

Target 5.B
Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health*

Goal 6
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease

Target 6.A
Have halted by 2015, and begun to reverse, the spread HIV/AIDS

240

    Target 6.B
Achieve, by 2015, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it

Target 6.C
Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

Goal 7
Ensure environmental sustainability 

Target 7.A
Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources

Target 7.B
Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss*

Target 7.C
Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

Goal 8
Develop a global partnership for development

Target 8.A
Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system. Including a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both national and internationally

Target 8.B
Address the special needs of the least developed countries. Including: tariff and quota free access for least developed countries’ exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for HIPC, and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction

Target 8.C
Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty second special session of the General Assembly)

Target 8.D
Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures, in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.

 

Source: United Nations, 2009.


 

Table 3: MDG status in Nigeria

 

Goal

1990

2000

2007

Target 2015

Progress towards target

1

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute PPI (US $/day)%

-

-

-

21.4

Slow

 

Relative PPI (%)

42.7

66.0

54.4

21.4

Slow

 

Population (million)

91.5

91.5

140.0

-

Slow

 

Population under poverty (million)

39.1

39.1

67.1

-

Slow

 

Percentage of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

13.0

13.0

-

5.2

Good

 

Percentage of underweight under 5 – children

35.7

31.0

25.0

18

Slow

2

Achieve universal education

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net enrolment ratio in primary education

68.0

95.0

89.6

100

Good

 

Proportion of pupils starting grade I

67.0

97.0

74.0

100

Good

 

Primary six completion rate

58.0

76.7

67.5

100

Good

 

Literacy rate of 15 to 24 years old

70.0

64.1

81.4

100

Good

3

Promote gender equality and empower women

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of girls to boys in primary education (girls per 100 boys)

76.0

78.0

93.6

100

Good

 

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education (girls per 100 boys)

75.0

81.0

97.6

100

Good

 

Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education (girls to 100 boys)

46.0

66.0

-

100

Good

 

Share of women in wage employment in the non agriculture sector

63.0

79.0

-

100

Lack of data

 

Seats held by women in national parliament

1.0

3.1

7.7

30

Slow

4

Reduce child mortality

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

91.0

81.4

110.0

30.3

Worsening

 

Under 5 mortality (per 1,000 live births)

191.0

183.8

201.0

63.7

Worsening

 

Percentage of 1 year old fully immunized against measles

46.0

32.8

60.0

100

Good

5

Improve maternal health

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maternal mortality ratio

-

704.0

800.0

100

Worsening

 

Births attended to by skilled health personnel

45.0

42.0

36.3

100

Worsening (data problem)

6

Combat HIV & AIDS, Malaria and other diseases

 

 

 

 

 

 

HIV prevalence among pregnant young women aged 15 to 24

-

5.4

4.3

-

Slow

 

Young people aged 15 to 24 who both correctly identify ways of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV and who reject major misconceptions about HIV transmission

-

-

25.9

100

Slow (data problem)

 

Young people aged 15 to 24 reporting the use of a condom during sexual intercourse with a non-regular sexual partner

242

    -

-

-

100

Lack of data

 

Children orphaned by HIV & AIDS

-

-

2.0

-

Lack of data

 

Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria

-

-

-

-

Slow (lack of data)

 

Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis

-

-

-

-

Slow (lack of data)

7

Ensure environmental sustainability

 

 

 

 

 

 

Land area covered by forest

-

14.6

12.6

20

Worsening

 

Gas flared

68.0

53.0

34.0

0

Slow

 

Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per US $ GDP (PPP)

-

-

1.5

-

Slow (lack of data)

 

Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita)

-

4799.0

2500.0

-

Improving

 

Total population with access to safe drinking water (%)

54.0

54.0

49.1

100

Worsening

 

Total Population with access to basic sanitation (%)

39.0

42.9

42.9

100

Worsening

 

People with access to secure tenure (%)

-

38.4

61.2

100

Improving

 

Residential housing construction index (ACI) (proxy)

-

53.0

31.0

-

Worsening

8

Develop a global partnership for development

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per capita official development assistance to Nigeria (in US $)

3.0

1.5

81.7

 

Improving

 

Debt services as a percentage of exports of goods and services

-

9.0

1.2

 

Good

 

Private sector investments (US $ million)

50.0

75.0

8100.0

 

Improving

 

Tele-density (per 1,000 people)

0.5

0.7

27.4

 

Good

 

Personal computers (per 1,000 people)

-

6.4

6.7

 

Lack of data

 

Internet access (7%)

0.1

0.1

1.9

 

Slow

   Source: Mid-point Assessment of the Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria, 2008 (in Okogu,2009)
 

Table 4: Nigeria’s progress on the MDG template

Eradication of extreme poverty and hunger

1990

1995

2001

2006

2015 (projection)

Progress towards target

Population below $1 a day (%)

-

70.2

-

50.2

21.3

Good

Population below $2 a day (%)

-

90.9

-

70.3

41.3

Fair

Percentage share of consumption in income

-

44

-

80.8

15.4

Worsening

Prevalence of child malnutrition (% of children under age 5)

35.3

39.1

30.7

-

31.6

Fair

Population below minimum dietary energy

13.0

8.0

8.0

6.9

5.2

Good

Achieve universal primary education

 

 

 

 

 

 

Youth literacy rate (% ages 15-24)

73.6

81.1

87.8

88.6

89.2

Improving

Promotion of gender equality and empower women

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of female to male enrolments in primary and secondary school

75.8

80.0

-

92

100

Very good

Ratio of young literacy females to males (% ages 15-24)

82.3

89.2

94.7

95.3

100

Very good

Reduce child mortality

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births

235.0

238.0

205.0

201.0

102.3

Improving

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

115

120

102

90

60

Improving

Immunization, measles (% children under 12 months)

54.0

53.2

51.6

60.2

80.2

Good

Improve maternal health

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maternal mortality rate per 1,000 live births

103

112

109

87

51

Good

Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total)

30.8

-

41.6

50.3

63.5

Improving

Combat HIV/AIDS and other diseases

 

 

 

 

 

 

HIV prevalence female % of ages 15-24

-

-

5.8

6.8

-

Worsening

Incidence of Tuberculosis per 100,000 people

-

-

235

304.2

211.3

Reducing

Contraceptive prevalence rate (% women 15-49)

6.0

-

15.3

20.3

32.5

Fair

Number of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS

-

-

1000

1100

1211

Worsening

Tuberculosis cases detected under DOTS (%)

-

9.0

16.0

12.3

5.2

Improving

Environmental sustainability

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carbon dioxide emission per capita metric tones

0.9

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.9

Worsening

Access to improved water source (% of population)

53.0

-

62.0

60.1

40.2

Fair

Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population)

53.0

-

54.0

45.2

21.3

Fair

Other human development indicators

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over)

48.7

56.4

65.4

66.8

80.2

Good

Total fertility rate (birth per woman)

6.0

5.7

5.3

5.1

3.0

Good

Life expectancy at birth (years)

49.1

49.9

46.8

45.3

51.0

Improving

Partnership with developed countries and other

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooperation and integration among Africa countries

40.2

41.3

51.3

60.8

70.2

Good

Cooperation and integration among developed countries

0.3

0.4

10.2

15.6

20.2

Improving

Formation of local and international group like NEPAD, MAP, APRM

0.5

0.8

32.6

43.9

60.2

Increasing

Source: Zenith Quarterly 2008 (in Iganiga and Unemhilin, 2009)


Table 5: MDG challenges in Nigeria

Millennium development goal

Current status in nigeria

Extreme poverty to be halved between 1990 and 2015

70% of Nigerians live on les than $1 per day

Proportion of people suffering from hunger to be halved

29% of children are underweight

All children to complete primary education

Less than 60% of primary aged children attend school. 7 million primary aged children are not in school.

Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education by 2005

The number of girls enrolled in primary education is 77% of the boys. In some states it is less than 40%

Reduce child deaths by two thirds between 1990 and 2015

One child in five dies before its fifth birthday, one child in ten before its first birthday

Reduce deaths of mothers due to child bearing by three quarters between 1990 and 2015l health

One birth in a hundred results in the death of the mother. Women in northern Nigeria have a one in fifteen chance of dying through a pregnancy related cause

Stop the spread of AIDS

5% of Nigerians are infected with HIV – over 10% in some states. Over 1 million children have already been orphaned by AIDS

Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without safe drinking water

Less than 5% of the proportion has access to a safe water source

Partnership with development and developing countries

NEPAD sensitizes every country of the need of cooperation and integration and the importance of good governance to eliminate poverty among African countries

Source: DFID Annual report 2007 (in Iganiga and Unemhilin, 2009)

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